Risk Intelligence reduces size of its Horn of Africa High Risk Area

“When Somali piracy expanded it was easy enough. High risk areas were drawn up, further and further from the coast. But with the reduction in the frequency of attacks, we assessed that now was the time to start taking the consequences of that and reduce the area in an intelligent way”, says Nis Leerskov Mathiesen, Chief Analyst in Risk Intelligence. Risk Intelligence’s analysts have looked at all the areas of the wider Horn of Africa region and analysed in each of them, in order to assess where the High Risk Area should be reduced and where it should be preserved. Pirate, merchant marine and navy activity was all factored in. “The revision is not based only on the declining numbers of attacks that are apparent to all. But it is rooted in the experience and expertise of the Risk Intelligence team of analysts and consultants and draws on statistical incident information, intelligence from local sources and systematic forecasting of the short and medium term”, says Nis Leerskov Mathiesen. The most substantial change in the MaRisk Horn of Africa High Risk Area is that it now has its eastern border from Diu Head in India to Minicoy Island. This excludes a stretch of  and is not similar to the official High Risk Area designated in the Best Management Practices (BMP). The MaRisk High Risk Area is identifies a “substantial higher risk of attacks”. This means that it does not guarantee that there is no risk outside the area. “It is very important to understand that although the likelihood of an attack might be significantly lower outside the designated High Risk Area, the chances of pirate success and the outcome of both failed and successful attacks are still the same”, says Nis Leerskov Mathiesen. The High Risk Area and the current threats that have defined it are described in the latest issue of the series of maritime security reports Strategic Insights.