Unlikely that the Yemen Conflict will close the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait

The passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden is too important for the threat of a longer sea route south of Africa to be Risk Intelligence informs the Danish maritime magazine Søfart, 31 March. In a conflict developing by the day, it can be hard to take stock. The unrest in Yemen is currently a great source of worry, especially to the oil industry, who fear a closure of the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb strait is widespread. Such closure would imply that merchant vessels can no longer use the shortcut through the Suez Canal, but will be forced to take the longer route south of Africa. Risk Intelligence estimates, however, that even with all ports in Yemen being officially shut down at the moment, there is no reason to believe that the maritime hub of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait will be blocked. Yemen simply profits too well from keeping the international waters open for sailing, CEO of Risk Intelligence, Hans Tino Hansen explains: “A great deal of the LNG-transport from Yemen LNG in Balhaf happens through the Suez Canal, and any future government will be dependent of these revenues, and thus none of the two sides of the conflict has an interest in destroying this”. This fact makes Risk Intelligence conclude that while there has been talks of blockade of the strait between Yemen and Djibouti, this is highly unlikely on the short term, and will probably only present itself as a possibility if the conflict in Yemen leads to war breaking out between international actors. Despite reports of Djibouti having had its port capacity strongly tested, there is almost no effect of the Yemen crisis on international transit sailing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden right now, Risk Intelligence finally tells maritime media Søfart. Recognizing the constant developments of the volatile situation in Yemen, however, Risk Intelligence has upgraded their security updates with a weekly report dedicated to the security situation in Yemen and around, constructed in parts by private sources in Yemen.